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Hornady Hornady Match 6.5 Creedmoor Ammo 147 Grain Hornady ELD Match

B
blurry_circles 7/19/2026

Ammunition

Hornady Brand
Hornady Match 6.5 Creedmoor Ammo 147 Grain Hornady ELD Match Ammo
Ammunition
Hornady Hornady Match 6.5 Creedmoor Ammo 147 Grain Hornady ELD Match
Caliber
6.5 Creedmoor
Grain Weight
147gr
Lot Number
-

Firearm

Description
Tikka 6.5 cm w Outlier 24" in MDT w R65k
Barrel
24" / 1:7
Muzzle Brake
No
Suppressor
Yes

Ballistics Data

Average FPS
2630
Extreme Spread
-
Std Dev
16
Total Shots
20
Garmin Xero C1 Pro Chronograph Recorded with: Garmin Xero C1 Pro Chronograph

Shot Groups

Collective @ 100 yards

POA-aligned across 4 of 4 groups

Group Size
1.917"
1.92 MOA
Mean Radius
0.540"
0.54 MOA
Shots
20
ES / MR 3.55× (expected ~3.66× for 20 shots) typical
Suggested re-zero Combined POI is 0.81″ (0.81 MOA) off from POA
Elevation — dial UP
0.17 mil (0.60 MOA)
0.60″ at 100yd
Windage — dial RIGHT
0.15 mil (0.56 MOA)
0.56″ at 100yd

Precision (group size, MR) isn't affected by this offset — that's your zero, a separate variable from how tightly the rifle groups.

Within-string MR: 0.413" (0.41 MOA) Between-string drift: 0.336" (0.34 MOA) Between / within: 0.81× mixed

Mixed — within-string dispersion and between-string drift contribute similarly. Both dispersion and drift are worth investigating.

Hit probability matrix — Collective @ 100yd · 20 shots · MR 0.540″

Assumes shooter dispersion is the dominant error source and scales linearly with range. Doesn't model wind, MV SD, or BC uncertainty — those matter more as distance grows, so real-world hit rates at long range will typically be lower than shown.

Range0.5 MOA1 MOA2 MOA8"10"IPSC A
100 yd (measured)16%49%93%≥99%≥99%≥99%
200 yd 16%49%93%≥99%≥99%≥99%
300 yd 16%49%93%99%≥99%98%
400 yd 16%49%93%93%99%92%
500 yd 16%49%93%82%93%83%
600 yd 16%49%93%70%85%73%
700 yd 16%49%93%59%75%63%
800 yd 16%49%93%49%65%55%
900 yd 16%49%93%41%57%47%
1000 yd 16%49%93%35%49%41%
1100 yd 16%49%93%30%43%36%
1200 yd 16%49%93%26%37%31%

Collective @ 300 yards

POA-aligned across 4 of 4 groups

Group Size
7.872"
2.62 MOA
Mean Radius
1.281"
0.43 MOA
Shots
20
ES / MR 6.15× (expected ~3.66× for 20 shots) flier probable (top 1%)
Suggested re-zero Combined POI is 1.92″ (0.64 MOA) off from POA
Elevation — dial UP
0.15 mil (0.54 MOA)
1.61″ at 300yd
Windage — dial RIGHT
0.10 mil (0.35 MOA)
1.04″ at 300yd

Precision (group size, MR) isn't affected by this offset — that's your zero, a separate variable from how tightly the rifle groups.

Within-string MR: 1.283" (0.43 MOA) Between-string drift: 0.500" (0.17 MOA) Between / within: 0.39× consistent

Consistent — shot dispersion within each string dominates. Group centers land close together.

Hit probability matrix — Collective @ 300yd · 20 shots · MR 1.281″

Assumes shooter dispersion is the dominant error source and scales linearly with range. Doesn't model wind, MV SD, or BC uncertainty — those matter more as distance grows, so real-world hit rates at long range will typically be lower than shown.

Range0.5 MOA1 MOA2 MOA8"10"IPSC A
100 yd 24%66%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
200 yd 24%66%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
300 yd (measured)24%66%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
400 yd 24%66%99%99%≥99%97%
500 yd 24%66%99%94%99%92%
600 yd 24%66%99%85%95%85%
700 yd 24%66%99%76%89%78%
800 yd 24%66%99%66%81%70%
900 yd 24%66%99%57%74%62%
1000 yd 24%66%99%50%66%56%
1100 yd 24%66%99%43%59%49%
1200 yd 24%66%99%38%53%44%

Group 1

100 yards
Group Size
1.143"
1.14 MOA
Mean Radius
0.424"
0.42 MOA
Shots
5
ES / MR 2.70× (expected ~2.75× for 5 shots) typical
Hit probability matrix — Group 1 · 100yd · MR 0.424″

Assumes shooter dispersion is the dominant error source and scales linearly with range. Doesn't model wind, MV SD, or BC uncertainty — those matter more as distance grows, so real-world hit rates at long range will typically be lower than shown.

Range0.5 MOA1 MOA2 MOA8"10"IPSC A
100 yd (measured)24%66%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
200 yd 24%66%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
300 yd 24%66%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
400 yd 24%66%99%99%≥99%97%
500 yd 24%66%99%94%99%92%
600 yd 24%66%99%86%95%85%
700 yd 24%66%99%76%89%78%
800 yd 24%66%99%66%82%70%
900 yd 24%66%99%58%74%63%
1000 yd 24%66%99%50%66%56%
1100 yd 24%66%99%44%59%50%
1200 yd 24%66%99%38%53%45%

Group 2

100 yards
Group Size
1.557"
1.56 MOA
Mean Radius
0.532"
0.53 MOA
Shots
5
ES / MR 2.93× (expected ~2.75× for 5 shots) typical
Hit probability matrix — Group 2 · 100yd · MR 0.532″

Assumes shooter dispersion is the dominant error source and scales linearly with range. Doesn't model wind, MV SD, or BC uncertainty — those matter more as distance grows, so real-world hit rates at long range will typically be lower than shown.

Range0.5 MOA1 MOA2 MOA8"10"IPSC A
100 yd (measured)16%50%94%≥99%≥99%≥99%
200 yd 16%50%94%≥99%≥99%≥99%
300 yd 16%50%94%99%≥99%98%
400 yd 16%50%94%94%99%92%
500 yd 16%50%94%83%94%83%
600 yd 16%50%94%71%85%74%
700 yd 16%50%94%60%76%64%
800 yd 16%50%94%50%66%56%
900 yd 16%50%94%42%58%48%
1000 yd 16%50%94%36%50%42%
1100 yd 16%50%94%31%44%36%
1200 yd 16%50%94%27%38%32%

Group 3

100 yards
Group Size
1.132"
1.13 MOA
Mean Radius
0.388"
0.39 MOA
Shots
5
ES / MR 2.92× (expected ~2.75× for 5 shots) typical
Hit probability matrix — Group 3 · 100yd · MR 0.388″

Assumes shooter dispersion is the dominant error source and scales linearly with range. Doesn't model wind, MV SD, or BC uncertainty — those matter more as distance grows, so real-world hit rates at long range will typically be lower than shown.

Range0.5 MOA1 MOA2 MOA8"10"IPSC A
100 yd (measured)28%73%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
200 yd 28%73%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
300 yd 28%73%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
400 yd 28%73%99%99%≥99%98%
500 yd 28%73%99%96%99%95%
600 yd 28%73%99%90%97%89%
700 yd 28%73%99%82%93%82%
800 yd 28%73%99%73%87%75%
900 yd 28%73%99%64%80%68%
1000 yd 28%73%99%57%73%62%
1100 yd 28%73%99%50%66%56%
1200 yd 28%73%99%44%60%50%

Group 4

100 yards
Group Size
0.895"
0.90 MOA
Mean Radius
0.308"
0.31 MOA
Shots
5
ES / MR 2.91× (expected ~2.75× for 5 shots) typical
Hit probability matrix — Group 4 · 100yd · MR 0.308″

Assumes shooter dispersion is the dominant error source and scales linearly with range. Doesn't model wind, MV SD, or BC uncertainty — those matter more as distance grows, so real-world hit rates at long range will typically be lower than shown.

Range0.5 MOA1 MOA2 MOA8"10"IPSC A
100 yd (measured)40%87%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
200 yd 40%87%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
300 yd 40%87%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
400 yd 40%87%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
500 yd 40%87%≥99%≥99%≥99%99%
600 yd 40%87%≥99%97%≥99%96%
700 yd 40%87%≥99%93%99%92%
800 yd 40%87%≥99%87%96%87%
900 yd 40%87%≥99%81%92%81%
1000 yd 40%87%≥99%73%87%76%
1100 yd 40%87%≥99%67%82%70%
1200 yd 40%87%≥99%60%76%65%

Group 5

300 yards
Group Size
1.468"
0.49 MOA
Mean Radius
0.557"
0.19 MOA
Shots
5
ES / MR 2.64× (expected ~2.75× for 5 shots) typical
Hit probability matrix — Group 5 · 300yd · MR 0.557″

Assumes shooter dispersion is the dominant error source and scales linearly with range. Doesn't model wind, MV SD, or BC uncertainty — those matter more as distance grows, so real-world hit rates at long range will typically be lower than shown.

Range0.5 MOA1 MOA2 MOA8"10"IPSC A
100 yd 76%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
200 yd 76%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
300 yd (measured)76%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
400 yd 76%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
500 yd 76%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
600 yd 76%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
700 yd 76%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
800 yd 76%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%99%
900 yd 76%≥99%≥99%99%≥99%98%
1000 yd 76%≥99%≥99%97%≥99%96%
1100 yd 76%≥99%≥99%95%99%93%
1200 yd 76%≥99%≥99%92%98%91%

Group 6

300 yards
Group Size
4.276"
1.43 MOA
Mean Radius
1.137"
0.38 MOA
Shots
5
ES / MR 3.76× (expected ~2.75× for 5 shots) flier likely (top 5%)
Hit probability matrix — Group 6 · 300yd · MR 1.137″

Assumes shooter dispersion is the dominant error source and scales linearly with range. Doesn't model wind, MV SD, or BC uncertainty — those matter more as distance grows, so real-world hit rates at long range will typically be lower than shown.

Range0.5 MOA1 MOA2 MOA8"10"IPSC A
100 yd 29%75%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
200 yd 29%75%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
300 yd (measured)29%75%≥99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
400 yd 29%75%≥99%≥99%≥99%99%
500 yd 29%75%≥99%97%≥99%95%
600 yd 29%75%≥99%91%98%90%
700 yd 29%75%≥99%83%94%84%
800 yd 29%75%≥99%75%88%77%
900 yd 29%75%≥99%66%82%70%
1000 yd 29%75%≥99%58%75%63%
1100 yd 29%75%≥99%51%68%57%
1200 yd 29%75%≥99%46%61%51%

Group 7

300 yards
Group Size
3.096"
1.03 MOA
Mean Radius
1.213"
0.40 MOA
Shots
5
ES / MR 2.55× (expected ~2.75× for 5 shots) typical
Hit probability matrix — Group 7 · 300yd · MR 1.213″

Assumes shooter dispersion is the dominant error source and scales linearly with range. Doesn't model wind, MV SD, or BC uncertainty — those matter more as distance grows, so real-world hit rates at long range will typically be lower than shown.

Range0.5 MOA1 MOA2 MOA8"10"IPSC A
100 yd 26%70%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
200 yd 26%70%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
300 yd (measured)26%70%99%≥99%≥99%≥99%
400 yd 26%70%99%99%≥99%98%
500 yd 26%70%99%95%99%94%
600 yd 26%70%99%88%96%87%
700 yd 26%70%99%79%91%80%
800 yd 26%70%99%70%85%73%
900 yd 26%70%99%61%77%66%
1000 yd 26%70%99%54%70%59%
1100 yd 26%70%99%47%63%53%
1200 yd 26%70%99%41%57%47%

Group 8

300 yards
Group Size
6.749"
2.25 MOA
Mean Radius
2.223"
0.74 MOA
Shots
5
ES / MR 3.04× (expected ~2.75× for 5 shots) typical
Hit probability matrix — Group 8 · 300yd · MR 2.223″

Assumes shooter dispersion is the dominant error source and scales linearly with range. Doesn't model wind, MV SD, or BC uncertainty — those matter more as distance grows, so real-world hit rates at long range will typically be lower than shown.

Range0.5 MOA1 MOA2 MOA8"10"IPSC A
100 yd 9%30%76%≥99%≥99%≥99%
200 yd 9%30%76%≥99%≥99%99%
300 yd (measured)9%30%76%92%98%91%
400 yd 9%30%76%76%89%78%
500 yd 9%30%76%60%76%65%
600 yd 9%30%76%47%63%53%
700 yd 9%30%76%37%52%43%
800 yd 9%30%76%30%43%36%
900 yd 9%30%76%25%36%30%
1000 yd 9%30%76%20%30%25%
1100 yd 9%30%76%17%26%21%
1200 yd 9%30%76%15%22%18%

Notes

Wind picked up (11mph+) during the 300yd shots, not sure how much (if it all) it contributed to any accuracy issues.

Photos

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